OCTOBER 22 bid results (Prices in parentheses are the results of October 15 bidding.): Vicmico A = P1,230 (P1,200) and B = P1,375 (P1,335); Hawaiian A = P1,254 (P1,200), B = P1,377.50 (P1,337.50), and molasses = P6,380 (P5,890); Sagay A = P1,237 (P1,200), B = P1,375 (P1,335), and D = P1,200 (P1,150);
Lopez A = P1,237 (P1,200) and B = P1,375 (P1,335); Biscom A = P1,237 (P1,215.70), B = P1,342.31 (P1,321.75), and D = P1,200 (P1,150); and, First Farmers A = P1,255 (P1,255), B = P1,400 (P1,360), D = P1,155 (P1,155), and molasses = P6,470 (P6,750).
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Sugar prices continue to strengthen in the domestic, US and world market. Of particular interest is the increase in A sugar prices, helped no doubt by rumors that the US might announce an increase in sugar imports to the tune of 1 million mt by April 2010. If there is truth to the matter, the Philippines is projected to get an additional 100,000 mt US quota.

As with India and Brazil, the weather is wreaking havoc on US sugar production. In Park County, Wyoming, sugar beet growers are urging Gov. Dave Freudenthal to declare an agricultural disaster in the area. The sugar beets, which are due to be harvested, were hit by a cold front, which plunged temperatures to a 90-year record low.

The beet froze on the ground and can no longer be processed. Estimated damage to crops stands at more than $12 million in this state, which accounts for an eighth of US sugar production.

The US is a net sugar importer. It regularly imports a minimum of roughly 1.1 million mt of sugar from the world market as its commitment to the WTO. Aside from the world market, the US also imports from Mexico. Unlike imports from the world market, volume of imports from Mexico is unrestricted due to a US slip-up during the Nafta negotiations. This blunder creates headaches for US agriculture policy-makers but they have to live with it.

Commodities experts agree that the US will need additional imports. Mexico, the only country with unlimited access to the US sugar market, might not be in a position to again supply 1.4 million short tons as it did last year because of dwindling stocks.

US Department of Agriculture estimates Mexican imports for this crop year at only 495,000 short tons. Thus, the US has to source its additional sugar needs from its traditional suppliers like the Philippines.

At any rate, analysts do not believe that the US will need an additional 1 million mt sugar imports. Those who dream of such an eventuality are closing their eyes to Mexican imports and the demonstrated clout of the American Sugar Alliance with the Obama administration. The US will announce additional imports next year but the figure might be more conservative, with the Philippines getting perhaps an additional 50,000 mt.
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Cane Points came across the letter of Sugar Board member Luis Tongoy addressed to the sugar industry stakeholders, urging them to review the second crop estimate for Visayas prepared by SRA's Extension Services Division. "In line with our thrust of transparency, we would like to request for your comments on the figures, especially in your respective area," Tongoy said.

Transparency generates mutual respect and confidence. Asking for feedback before embarking on a decision is also very laudable. May all decisions that emanate from the Sugar Board be always guided by these principles!
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To those who have not seen the crop estimate, allow me to highlight some of its contents, first of which is that the October estimate is 0.15 percent lower compared to the pre-preliminary crop estimate last August. The 3,225 hectares in San Carlos intended for bio-ethanol production was already deducted from the San Carlos mill district estimate.

In central Negros, it is estimated that production will be 411,498.11 mt from the 58,563 hectares planted to sugarcane. In northern Negros, the estimated sugarcane area of 59,207 hectares is expected to produce 373,608.6 mt while, in southern Negros; its estimated area of 79,356 hectares is projected to come up with 440,678.21 mt.

For the whole of Negros, the total area planted to sugarcane is estimated at 197,126 hectares and its estimated production is 1,225,784.92 mt.

Panay's estimated area of 26,245 hectares is projected to produce 115,074.95 mt while Eastern Visayas (Cebu and Leyte) is estimated to produce 76,260.33 mt from the 17,502 hectares planted to sugarcane.

For the entire Visayas, the area planted to sugarcane is estimated at 240,873 hectares with projected production of 1,417,120.20 mt.

Those who wish to air their comments on the estimate have until this afternoon to contact Luis Tongoy thru Ms. Elenita Omarrementeria at (034) 434 5123.
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